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    The Backward Extended Yule-Walker Equation and the Order Determination of ARMA Processes
    Byoung-Seon Choi
    Pages 3-10
  • Abstract || PDF
    •    A stationary ARMA process satisfies the (forward) extended Yule-Walker equations. which have been utilized in choosing optimal orders of the process. In this paper we present an associated nonstationary ARMA model that has the same autocorrelation function as the stationary one. and present the backward extended Yule-Walker equations of the associated ARMA process. Using the backward equations we present a new function whose pattern is useful to determine the orders of the ARMA process. Also, a recursive algorithm is presented to solve the forward and backward extended Yule-Walker equations simultaneously.
    Optimal Competition Policy for Marketing Boards
    Sanghack Lee, Sanghoon Lee
    Pages 11-23
  • Abstract || PDF
    •    This paper derives the optimal competition policy for marketing boards. The optimal number of export marketing boards proves to be one plus the ratio of the slope of an export supply curve relative to that of an import demand curve. The competition policy for export marketing boards is also shown to be equivalent to the export tax policy. For import marketing boards the optimal number is given ta one plus the ratio of slope of an import demand curve relative to that of an export supply curve. The competition policy for import marketing boards is equivalently to the import tariff policy as well. The optimal numbers fo marketing boards are expressed in terms of elasticities of import demand and export supply.
    °³ÀÎ ¼Òµæ¼¼ÀÇ Å»¼¼
    ÃÖ¿µ¼ø
    Pages 25-40
  • Abstract || PDF
    •    Å»¼¼ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤¿¡ °üÇÑ ±âÁ¸¿¬±¸´Â Á¤Å¸ðÇüÀ̸ç, ¼Ò¼öÀÇ 2±â°£¸ðÇüÀº Á¤Å¸ðÇü¿¡ ½Ã°£À» µµÀÔÇßÀ» »Ó Á¤Å¸ðÇüÀÇ Æ²°ú Â÷ÀÌ°¡ ¾ø´Ù. Áï, ´Ü±âÀûÀ¸·Î´Â °íÁ¤µÇ¾î ÀÖ¾î Å»¼¼ÀÇ »ç°áÁ¤½Ã °í·ÁÇÏÁö ¾Ê´ø º¯¼öÀ̳ª Àå±âÀûÀ¸·Î ½Ã°£ÀÌ È帧¿¡ µû¶ó º¯ÇÏ°í Å»¼¼¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ÁÖ´Â º¯¼öµé¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °í·Á¸¦ ÇÏÁö ¸øÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ¹®Á¦Á¡ÀÇ ÀνÄÇÏ¿¡ º» ¿¬±¸¿¡¼­´Â Å»¼¼ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤¸ðÇü¿¡ ½Ã°£À» µµÀÔÇÏ°í, Å»¼¼¿¡ ¿µÇâÀ» ÁÖ´Â º¯¼ö·Î¼­ Á¤Å¸ðÇü¿¡¼­ °í·ÁÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´ø º¯¼öµéÀ» µµÀÔÇÏ¿© ¸ðÇüÀ» È®ÀåÇÏ¿´´Ù. Áï, 2±â°£¸ðÇüÀ» ÀÌ¿ëÇÏ¿© ³³¼¼ÀÚ¿Í Á¤ºÎÀÇ ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤¸ðÇüÀ» ¼³Á¤ÇÏ°í, ½Ã°£°ú ÇÔ²² º¯È­ÇÏ´Â º¯¼ö·Î '³³¼¼ÀÚÀÇ Å»¼¼±â¼ú'°ú '¼º½Ç¼ºÇâÀÇ ³³¼¼ÀÚ ºñÀ²'À» Æ÷ÇÔÇÏ¿© Å»¼¼ÀÇ»ç°áÁ¤À» ºÐ¼®ÇÏ¿´´Ù. Ãß°¡ÀûÀ¸·Î ¼º½Ç¼ºÇâÀÇ ³³¼¼ÀÚ°¡ Æ÷ÇÔµÊ ¸ðÇüÀ» ÀÌ¿ëÇÏ¿© ¼¼¹«°­È­Á¤Ã¥ÀÌ ´Ü±âÀûÀ¸·Î´Â ³³¼¼¸¦ Áõ°¡½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖÀ¸³ª, Àå±âÀûÀ¸·Î´Â ³³¼¼¸¦ °¨¼Ò½ÃÅ°´Â È¿°ú¸¦ °¡Áú ¼öµµ ÀÖÀ½À» º¸¿´´Ù.
    Áַ»ê¾÷ÀÇ ½ÃÀåÁýÁß·üÀÌ ´Ù°¢È­¿¡ ¹ÌÄ¡´Â È¿°ú: 30´ë ±â¾÷Áý´ÜÀ» ´ë»óÀ¸·Î
    ÀüÀοì
    Pages 41-55
  • Abstract || PDF
    •    °íÁýÁßÈ­µÈ »ê¾÷³»¿¡¼­ ÁÖ·ÂÁ¦Ç°À» »ý»êÇÏ´Â ±â¾÷ÀÇ °æ¿ì ¼ö¿äÁõ°¡À²º¸´Ù ³ôÀº ¼ºÀåƲÀ» ´Þ¼ºÇϱâ À§ÇØ ´Ù°¢È­Àü·«À» ÃëÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ¶Ç´Â ´çÇØ »ê¾÷¿¡¼­ °¡°ÝÀÎÇÏ¿Í ±¤°íºñ ¹× ¿¬±¸°³¹ßºñ ÁöÃâÀÇ È®´ë¿¡ ÀÇÇÑ Á¦Ç°Â÷º°È­¸¦ ÅëÇØ ½ÃÀåÁ¡À¯À²À» ³ôÀÌ´Â Àü·«À» ¼±ÅÃÇÒ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù. Gort¡²7¡³¿¡ µû¸£¸é ÈÄÀÚÀÇ ¹æ¹ýÀº °æÀï±â¾÷À¸·ÎºÎÅÍÀÇ º¸º¹ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ³ô±â ¶§¹®¿¡ ±â¾÷Àº ÁÖ·ÂÁ¦Ç° ½ÃÀå ¹Û¿¡¼­ ÅõÀÚ±âȸ¸¦ ã´Â °æÇâÀÌ °­ÇÏ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ÑÎê«çÈ⧠èâ [17¡³¿¡ µû¸£¸é¿ªÀ¸·Î ÀúÁýÁßÈ­µÈ »ê¾÷³»¿¡¼­ ÁÖ·ÂÁ¦Ç°À» »ý»êÇÏ´Â ±â¾÷ÀÇ °æ¿ì¿¡µµ ½Å±Ô±â¾÷¿¡ ÀÇÇÑ ½ÃÀåÀá½ÄÀ» ¿ì·ÁÇØ ´Ù°¢È­ÇÏ·Á´Â µ¿±â¸¦ °®´Â´Ù. º» ¿¬±¸´Â 1993³â ÇöÀç 30´ë ±â¾÷Áý´ÜÀ» ´ë»óÀ¸·Î ÇÑ 1987³âºÎÅÍ 1989³â±îÁöÀÇ ÆгÎÀڷḦ ÀÌ¿ëÇÏ¿© Çѱ¹ ±â¾÷Áý´ÜÀÇ °æ¿ì¿¡ ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ °¡¼³ÀÌ ¼º¸³ÇÏ´ÂÁö¸¦ ½ÇÁõÀûÀ¸·Î ºÐ¼®ÇÏ¿´´Ù. ½ÇÁõºÐ¼® °á°ú¿¡ µû¸£¸é ±â¾÷Áý´ÜÀÌ Âü¿©ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â Á¦Á¶¾÷ºÎºÐ³» °³º°½ÃÀåÀÇ »óÀ§3»ç ÁýÁß·üÀ» °¡ÁßÆò±ÕÇÑ °¡Áß½ÃÀåÁýÁß·üÀº º£¸®Áö¼ö·Î °èÃøµÈ ±â¾÷Áý´ÜÀÇ ´Ù°¢È­¿Í UÀÚÇüÀÇ °ü°è¿¡ ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î ºÐ¼®µÇ¾ú´Ù.
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    Pages 57-72
  • Abstract || PDF
    •    º» ¿¬±¸´Â ÀüÀÚ»ê¾÷À» ´ë»óÀ¸·Î ÇÏ¿© ÀϺ»±â¾÷ÀÇ µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ºÐ¾÷ ³×Æ®¿öÅ© ¼Ó¿¡¼­ Çѱ¹°ú ´ë¸¸¿¡ ÁøÃâÇÑ °ÅÁ¡ÀÌ ¾î¶°ÇÑ Â÷ÀÌÁ¡À» ³ªÅ¸³»°í Àִ°¡¸¦ ºÐ¼®ÇÑ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ÇöÀç ÀϺ» ÀüÀÚ±â¾÷ÀÇ Çѱ¹ÅõÀÚ´Â ±Þ°ÝÈ÷ °¨¼ÒÇÏ´Â µ¥ ¹ÝÇØ ´ë¸¸ÅõÀÚ´Â ¿©ÀüÈ÷ È£Á¶¸¦ À¯ÁöÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÌ°ÍÀº ´ë¸¸°ÅÁ¡ÀÌ ¾Æ¼¼¾È¡¤Áß±¹ °ÅÁ¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ºÎÇ°°ø±Þ±âÁö·Î¼­ÀÇ ±× ¼º°ÝÀ» Á¡Â÷ °­È­½ÃÄÑ°¡°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â °Í, ¹Ý´ë·Î Çѱ¹°ÅÁ¡Àº ÀϺ»±â¾÷ÀÇ µ¿¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ºÐ¾÷ ³×Æ®¿öÅ©·ÎºÎÅÍ ¼Ò¿ÜµÇ¾î ÀϺ»ÀÇ »ý»ê±âÁö·Î¼­ÀÇ Àǹ̸¦ ±Þ¼ÓÈ÷ »ó½ÇÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ÀǹÌÇÑ´Ù.
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    Pages 73-107
  • Abstract || PDF
    •    ÀϹÝÀûÀ¸·Î ¿À´Ã³¯ ½ÃÀå°æÁ¦±â±¸°¡ ´Ù¸¥ °æÁ¦±â±¸¿¡ ºñÇØ »ó´ëÀûÀΠź·Â¼º°ú À¯¿¬¼ºÀ» º¸ÀÌ°í ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀº °æÁ¦¼öÇà°úÁ¤¿¡ ³·Àº ºñ¿ëÀÌ µç´Ù´Â µ¥¼­ ÁÖÀåµÇ¾îÁö°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ÇϳªÀÇ ¡®Á¦µµ¡¯, °æÁ¦±â±¸·Î¼­ÀÇ ½ÃÀåÀÇ »ó´ëÀû ¿ì¿ù¼ºÀº ¸í·ÉÀ̳ª ±ÇÀ§, ¾ï¾Ð, °ü½À µî °æÁ¦¿ÜÀûÀÎ ¿ä¼Ò¿¡ ÀÇÁ¸ÇÏÁö ¾Ê°íµµ °æÁ¦Áú¼­¸¦ °¡´ÉÄÉ ÇÏ´Â ³»Àû ±âÁ¦¸¦ ´ãÁöÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â µ¥¼­ ã¾Æ¾ß ÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. Áï ºñ°æÁ¦Àû ±Ù°Å¿¡¼­ Á¦½ÃµÈ °¡Ä¡±Ô¹ü¿¡ ÀÇÁ¸ÇÏÁö ¾Ê°íµµ "Áú¼­ÀÖ´Â °æÁ¦½Ã½ºÅÛ"À» ±¸ÃàÇÑ´Ù´Â µ¥ ÀÖ´Ù°í ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª Çö´ë°æÁ¦ÀÇ ½ÃÀåÀº ¸¹Àº °æÁ¦°ü°èÀÇ ¿Ö°î°ú ºÒÆòµî, ¶§·Î´Â Æø·ÂÀû Çö»ó±îÁöµµ °üÂûÇÏ°Ô ÇÑ´Ù. ÀÌ´Â Çîµå¸¯ ÇÏ¿ìÅÂÄ¿(Hendrik S. Houthakker)°¡ À̾߱âÇϵíÀÌ °æÁ¦Àû ÇÕ¸®¼º °³³ä¿¡´Â ±â´ë¿å¸ÁÀÇ ±Ø´ëÈ­ ¿Ü¿¡ ŸÀÎ ¹× »çȸÀû °¡Ä¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¹è·Á°¡ Æ÷ÇԵǰí ÀÖ¾î¾ß Çϸç, 'ÆÄ·¹ÅäóÃÖÀû'ÀÇ »óŵµ ÍìÔÒà¼À̶ó´Â °¡Ä¡°¡ ³»ÀçµÇ¾î ÀÖÀ½À» °£°úÇÑ µ¥ ±âÀÎÇÑ´Ù°í ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ¸»ÇÏÀÚ¸é ½ÃÀåÀº ¹Ì½ÃÀû Â÷¿ø¿¡¼­´Â °æÁ¦ÀεéÀÌ ÇàÀ§±ÔÁØÀ¸·Î¼­ÀÇ °æÁ¦À±¸® ´ö¸ñÀ» üÇöÇÏ°í ÀÖ¾î¾ßÇϸç, °Å½ÃÀû Â÷¿ø¿¡¼­´Â °æÁ¦Àû Á¤ÀÇÀÇ ¹®Á¦°¡ ¸ðµç °æÁ¦ÀεéÀÇ ÀÚ¹ßÀû ÇÕÀÇ¿¡ ÀÇÇØ ¼ö¿ëµÇ°í ÀÖ¾î¾ß ÇϳªÀÇ '»çȸÁú¼­'(social order)·Î¼­ ±¸ÃàµÊÀ» °£°úÇÑ °ÍÀ̶ó ÇÏ°Ú´Ù. µû¶ó¼­ º» ¿¬±¸¿¡¼­´Â ½ÃÀåÀÇ ÇÕ¸®¼ºÀº À±¸®Àû ÇÕ¸®¼º±îÁö Æ÷ÇÔÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ̸ç, ¹Ù·Î ¿©±â¿¡ ½ÃÀå±â´ÉÀÇ ¿ì¿ù¼³ÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù´Â ¹®Á¦ÀǽÄÇÏ¿¡ À±¸®Àû ÇÕ¸®¼ºÀÇ ³»¿ëÀ» ¹Ì½ÃÀû ¹× °Å½ÃÀû Â÷¿ø¿¡¼­ °ËÅäÇÏ°íÀÚ ÇÑ´Ù.


The Korean Journal of Economics, Vol. 4, No. 1 (Spring 1997)